Penn State is closing the gap with Ohio State in FPI, which predicts strength above average (in points per game) going forward.
The Panthers entered today with a 58% chance to reach the postseason, but at halftime that number is down to 45% with Carolina trailing the Bears by 14 points.
Drew Stanton has a career Total QBR of 46.2. That isn't great, but also is not all that much of a drop off from what the Cardinals might be able to realistically expect out of Carson Palmer. Since the start of 2016, Palmer has recorded a Total QBR of 51.3.
The lack of production from Marcus Mariota and the Titans' offense in the first half ought to be particularly alarming given who they are playing against. Entering today, no team had allowed a higher opponent Total QBR than the Browns.
Eddie Jackson's two defensive touchdowns combined have added over 50% to the Bears' win probability.
Following its overtime win over Texas, Oklahoma State has snuck into the current Strength of Record top 10.
Eddie Jackson's 75-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown increased the Bears' chances of beating the Panthers by 26%. It's early, but so far that's the most of any play today.
Following USC's loss to Notre Dame yesterday, the Pac-12 has just a 2% chance of having a team finish in the top four in Strength of Record at the end of the regular season.
In terms of playoff chances, no team in the AFC faces a higher leverage game today than the Broncos.
Today's Saints-Packers game has significant ramifications for both teams' playoff chances.
Penn State may have impressed last night against Michigan, but FPI is still not particularly bullish on the Nittany Lions' chances to win the Big Ten. The model gives them an 18% chance to win the conference, behind Wisconsin (30%) and Ohio State (52%).
FPI is relatively optimistic about the Panthers' chances of bouncing back today after last week's loss to the Eagles.
Notre Dame now has an 18% chance to finish the season with a top-four Strength of Record. Probably not coincidentally, the Fighting Irish have a 19% chance to win out, per FPI.
After routing USC last night, Notre Dame received a 2.7-point upgrade to its FPI rating and moved up three spots in the FPI rankings to No. 5. No new teams entered the top 10, and the order of the top four teams did not change.
Should Oklahoma State beat Texas today, it would have a 26% chance to win the Big 12. And while Texas is a long shot, the Longhorns aren't totally out of it either. With a win, their chances of winning the conference would go up from 4% to 9%.
Oklahoma has an 80% chance to beat Kansas State today, but if the Sooners lose, their chance to win the Big 12 would drop to 21% and their chance to finish the season with a top-four Strength of Record would fall from 34% right now to 12%.
After losing to the Raiders last night, the Chiefs dropped to No. 2 in FPI's rankings. The Patriots took over the top spot. The model also upgraded Oakland's rating by 1.2 points per game after surpassing expectations against Kansas City.
Kevin Love's 23-foot three with 46 seconds remaining increased the Cavs win probability from 65% to 83%, - the highest WPA of the game.
The Rams now have a 27% chance to reach the playoffs, up from 16% this morning, after beating the Jaguars today. That number does not include changes to FPI ratings based on today's performances.
After a few bad games in a row, Jay Cutler rebounded in Miami's win over the Falcons, posting a solid Total QBR of 71.1. That's his highest single-game Total QBR as a member of the Dolphins.
After DeShone Kizer struggled to start the season, Kevin Hogan started for the Browns today but wasn't any better. The former Stanford quarterback posted a Total QBR of 7.3 against the Texans. Entering today, Kizer had the worst Total QBR this season (18.0) among qualifying quarterbacks.
Alex Smith's 57-yard touchdown pass to De'Anthony Thomas (and ensuing PAT) increased the Chiefs' chances of beating the Steelers by 30%.
Don't sleep on Stanford as a potential Pac-12 champion.
As of 5:45 p.m., the Packers' chances to reach the postseason and win the Super Bowl would have been 80% and 10%, respectively, if Aaron Rodgers had started every remaining game. If Rodgers is out for the year, those numbers drop to 50% and 2%, respectively.
The Bears' chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft dropped from 7% to 2% after they beat the Ravens today and the 49ers and Browns both lost.